The latest Early Bird Survey (EBS) suggests that the UK could see a significant increase in oilseed rape plantings for 2026. Published on 13 November 2025, the provisional survey results indicate a 30 per cent rise in oilseed rape area compared with last year, while wheat is expected to increase slightly by 1 per cent. Conversely, barley and oats are forecasted to decline, with regional variations across the country.
The EBS combines official provisional estimates from England and Scotland with estimated areas for Wales and Northern Ireland. Final official figures for 2025 are yet to be published by Defra, so these forecasts should be treated as provisional. Historical trends show that extreme weather can affect planted and harvested areas, meaning actual outcomes may differ from early projections.
Helen Plant, Senior Analyst for AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds, explained: “Oilseed rape is the stand-out crop for 2026, with a projected rise to 316 Kha. While this is a large year-on-year increase, it follows the forty-two-year low recorded in 2025 and remains below 2023’s 391 Kha. Autumn drilling conditions were generally good in 2025, but the market environment is challenging. Lower cereal prices, reduced milling and malting premiums, and rising costs for all crops have influenced planting decisions. Oilseed rape likely offered a more favourable margin outlook, combined with strong yields in 2025. Other factors, including poor cereal yields over the past two years and commitments to agri-environment schemes, are also expected to impact 2026 planting plans.”
The Early Bird Survey is carried out each autumn by The Andersons Centre with support from agronomists affiliated with the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC). Nearly 70 agronomists contributed data covering 600 Kha of UK arable land, providing a snapshot of cropping changes to inform national forecasts. Data was mainly collected by 1 November 2025, with some submissions received up to 7 November.
While the survey has a strong track record for accuracy, it represents a point-in-time snapshot. Estimates for winter crops and larger crops are generally more reliable, whereas spring crop intentions are subject to change. AHDB will publish final adjusted results, including regional breakdowns, following the release of the UK June survey results for 2025 in mid-December.
